Main idea

Major motivation for this research aside from broadening our fundamental understanding of volcanic systems are the fast growing population, the increasing number of megacities, and the complex communication, transport and supply networks - all of which have resulted in a dramatically increased vulnerability of modern society especially near large volcanoes (e.g., Naples, Catania, Tokyo, Mexico City, Seattle, Manila, Yogyakarta, Managua). Because some of the high risk volcanic systems (especially in the EU) are already monitored in various ways, we propose not to develop yet another monitoring system but to develop the core of a prototype of a mobile Volcano Fast Response System (VFRS) that can be deployed on a volcano in case of unrest or a crisis certainly only upon specific request form the government of the country the volcano is located in. The main idea behind this system is:

• that it can be installed fast due to intelligent, cable-free communication between the different stations and a data center,
• that a larger number of stations can be deployed,
• that all data are collected in a central data base including the data from an existing network (open system) if desired by local scientists and authorities,
• that models are developed to derive activity parameters out of the recorded data,
• that the data are visualized and partially analyzed in real time, and
• that objective and reliable data evaluations are carried out including recommendations for crisis management.

The system is intended to densify an existing network including some novel monitoring parameters that are regularly not observed but do allow further insight into the processes inside the volcanic edifice. The VFRS includes a package of programs that uses the recorded data to model and thereby better constrain the complex internal feedback mechanisms in the volcanic system to further improve early warning. 

Expected results

During the three years of funding we will certainly not be able to deliver a perfect mobile volcanic early warning system. However, we will try to develop the core of an open system with well defined interfaces that will certainly further evolve over the years. We therefore view our Volcano Fast Response System as a seed for a Volcanic Task Force Team. We deem the inclusion of older geophysical data that have been recorded by the already existing network into the fast response system database extremely important because they serve as a baseline for assessing the current activity. In case the Volcano Fast Response System is deployed at a volcanic system where the past activity is fairly unknown, an essential part of the Task Force that operates the Volcano Fast Response System would involve a thorough mapping of the past activity. Past activity is an essential information and one of the keys when trying to assess future activity. However, this is beyond the scope of this project as this depends on the individual volcano to be monitored.

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